Chinese Strategy in the Freely Associated States and American Territories in the Pacific: Implications for the United States

Grossman, Derek (2023). [www.rand.org Chinese Strategy in the Freely Associated States and American Territories in the Pacific: Implications for the United States] (Report). Washington, DC: RAND Corporation, The. p. 2023.

• Has attachment: File:XZCZE36R.pdf

Abstract: "...China’s Strategy in the Freely Associated States China’s strategy toward the Pacific Island countries that I just described is also playing out in the FAS—a region of keen geostrategic interest to the United States.24 As my RAND colleagues and I discussed in a 2019 report to Congress, the FAS are critical enablers of U.S. military operations that support the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy.25 Washington is seeking to sustain these long-standing security partnerships by renewing the Compacts of Free Association (COFAs) it has with them. The COFAs are unique international agreements that allow the United States to maintain sole and unfettered military access to the lands, waterways, and airspace of the FAS. China would like to convince the FAS to do away with the COFAs entirely, but more realistically, it is focused on blunting any military advantages that the U.S. military might accrue from the COFAs. What follows is an accounting of some Chinese activities vis-à-vis the FAS to achieve this objective."

MARSHALL ISLANDS "Marshall Islands is one of the four nations in Oceania that diplomatically recognizes Taiwan over China. What we uncovered as part of our 2019 research on China’s strategy toward the FAS is that Beijing, for years, has been offering economic incentives—such as lowering import taxes for Marshallese-flagged shipping into Chinese harbors—in exchange for official ties with China.26 This was a significant incentive because, at the time of our research, the Marshall Islands was the third-largest ship registry. Two other countries at the top of these rankings, Panama and Liberia, both switched from Taiwan to China and received the same benefit. Thus far, Majuro has rebuffed Chinese offers, but a change in diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, if it were to ever happen, would very likely entail additional areas of China-Marshall Islands cooperation...."

FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA "FSM is the only state within the FAS that diplomatically recognizes China over Taiwan. As a result, Chinese contacts with state governments and state officials are numerous. In March of this year, Chinese Special Envoy to the Pacific Qian Bo visited and met with President Panuelo. In August 2017, Chinese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Zheng Zeguang visited Pohnpei with a high-level delegation and met with FSM political leaders. The previous president, Peter Christian, was also accorded a state visit to Beijing in March 2017—an honor that had a lasting positive effect on FSM’s perception of China until Panuelo’s tenure began in 2019. Panuelo has said “we are bribed to be complicit, and bribed to be silent.”31 He also described having to change his cell phone number because the Chinese ambassador to FSM kept pressuring him to accept Chinese-made vaccines during the pandemic so that China appeared to have a competitive edge over the United States.32 At the time of this writing, the FSM Parliament is determining its next president, who might once again be more accommodative of Chinese wishes. We will have to continue to monitor the situation. Regardless, a key topic of dialogues between the two countries has been the U.S. Compact Trust Fund that the FSM government will rely on if U.S. economic assistance expires this year. Beijing has suggested that China might be willing to supplement the Compact Trust Fund to help the FSM achieve greater self-reliance...""

PALAU Like Marshall Islands, Palau also recognizes Taiwan over China, which has made it a target of Chinese pressure. Although it is difficult to determine the exact causation, Chinese tourism to Palau ramped up for years until, suddenly in November 2017, Beijing barred tourists from traveling to this pristine vacation spot. It appears that Beijing’s move was in retaliation for Palau’s refusal to switch diplomatic recognition.36 China has retaliated against other countries using this same tactic, including South Korea in 2017 because of its deployment of the U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. Palau’s president, Surangel Whipps, Jr., said in a recent interview, “There’s a lot of pressure on Palau . . . what we’ve told them is that we don’t have any enemies—so we shouldn’t have to choose. If you want to have relations with Palau, you’re welcome. But you cannot tell us that we cannot have relations with Taiwan.”