Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions: Toward a Long Term Strategy

From Habele Institute

Larson, Eric V; Eaton, Derek; Elrick, Paul; Karasik, Theodore; Klein, Robert; Lingel, Sherrill; Nichiporuk, Brian; Uy, Robert; Zavadil, John (2004). Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions: Toward a Long Term Strategy (Report). Santa Monica, CA. p. 187.

Abstract: This is the final report of a Fiscal Year 2002 study for the U.S. Army Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations (G-3), titled “Anti-Anti-Access: Ensuring Regional Access for Future U.S. Land Forces,” which examined potential adversaries’ anti-access strategies and potential U.S. counters to these strategies. The purpose of the study was twofold. First, it aimed to support the Army’s development of transformed land forces by identifying access requirements, potential anti-access threats and counters, and coalition/alliance dependencies during the 2003–2012 time period. This time frame was chosen because it is the focus of current Army planning and because it is nearly impossible to have much certainty about potential adversary capabilities beyond that period. Second, it considers operational and technical means for overcoming anti-access threats.

"...In-Theater. In terms of the deployment route itself, the most vulnerable nodes overall were in the theater of operation—the Taiwanese APODs and SPODs. This was principally because of their location within range of China’s CSS-6 and CSS-7 TBMs. Only a limited number of air bases are suitable for U.S. transport aircraft on the southern half of the island. Furthermore, only two ports on the eastern coast of Taiwan have the depth necessary to dock U.S. LMSR sealift ships—the vessels that would be used to bring significant Army forces into the Western Pacific. The small number of suitable APODs and SPODs means that a successful PRC missile strike on any one node would cause major disruptions and delays to the U.S. deployment timetable. Enough potential APODs on Taiwan and a sufficiently robust en-route infrastructure make it unlikely that a Chinese anti-access strategy based on airfield denial would succeed, however. Even with 75 percent of the preferred APODs on Taiwan destroyed, sufficient theoretical throughput would allow for timely closure of a TBM Defense Task Force, consisting of Patriot PAC-3 Brigade and robust force protection capabilities.5 In addition, in the unlikely event that Japanese airports were denied to U.S. aircraft, other en-route bases are sufficient for this scenario..."

"...Other states in the region offer possible en-route bases for U.S. airlift aircraft as well. In all cases, however, these are less desirable than their counterparts in Japan, South Korea, Guam, and Hawaii because of geographic position relative to Taiwan. Australia, the Philippines, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, the Northern Marianas, Micronesia, Palau, and Papua New Guinea all contain possible en-route bases for AMC aircraft. Bases in the Philippines, while not optimal for airlift operations in a Taiwan contingency, would be well suited as secondary operating locations for U.S. tactical fighter units during any Taiwan contingency..."

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MAG: 312609579
OpenAlex: W312609579
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