Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U. S. Posture Enhancements
Gunness, Kristen; Frederick, Bryan; Heath, Timothy R.; Ellinger, Emily; Curriden, Christian (2022). Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U. S. Posture Enhancements. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, The. ISBN 978-1-9774-0969-0.
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Abstract: The dramatic increase in Chinese power and military capabilities over the past two decades has prompted numerous calls for U.S. policymakers, and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) in particular, to reevaluate their approach to the Indo-Pacific region, including changes to U.S. military posture. This report provides a framework for assessing likely Chinese reactions to planned or proposed posture enhancements in the Indo-Pacific region. The authors demonstrate how U.S. Army and other military planners can apply the framework to assess an enhancement's likely deterrent value and whether it may induce aggressive People's Republic of China (PRC) responses. Although the framework cannot provide definitive predictions regarding specific Chinese reactions, it helps to ensure consideration of the factors and characteristics most directly linked with Chinese perceptions and behavior. The framework contains three main components. First, it identifies the key factors that appear to drive Chinese thinking and reactions. Second, it assesses how the characteristics of U.S. posture enhancements-their location, the U.S. allies or partners involved, their military capabilities, and the public profile or messaging that accompanies them-may affect Chinese reactions through each key factor. Third, the framework provides a typology of potential Chinese reactions, organized by their level of intensity. The authors apply the framework to three hypothetical U.S. posture enhancements to demonstrate its use and offer insights and recommendations for DoD and Army planners and policymakers.
"...As the third component of the U.S. overseas defense posture, major security and enabling agreements allow U.S. forces to operate in permissive foreign environments in the first place. Since the end of World War II, the United States has signed three bilateral mutual defense treaties with the Philip- pines, 1951; South Korea, 1953; and Japan, 1960 and two multilateral defense treaties—Australia-New Zealand-United States (ANZUS), 1951; and South- east Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), 1955–1977—in the theater.41 Addi- tionally, since the early 1980s, the United States has maintained Compacts of Free Association with Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands. These agreements (in part) delegate to Washington full authority and responsibil- ity for the defense of these three nations, while also providing the United States military access and transit rights in the Pacific island chains and denying other countries similar access. At present, the United States also maintains SOFAs with 14 partners in the theater..."
