Aircraft Encounters with Volcanic Clouds Over Micronesia, Oceania, 2002-03
Tupper, Andrew; Davey, Jason; Stewart, Paul; Servranckx, Barbara Stunder René; Prata, Fred (2015-12-01). "Aircraft Encounters with Volcanic Clouds Over Micronesia, Oceania, 2002-03". Australian Meteorological Magazine. 55 (4): 289–299. doi:10.1071/ES05127. ISSN 0004-9743.
- Has attachment: File:47NW6348.pdf
Abstract: Volcanic clouds pose a severe hazard to aviation; however, the extent of the threat, particularly for older clouds, is still undefined. This study examines three aircraft encounters with apparently ‘old’ volcanic clouds overMicronesia, northeast of Papua New Guinea, in November 2002 and March 2003. Satellite image analysis was performed using standard techniques, but no ash was detected in the area on the occasions of the encounters. Backward and forward trajectories and dispersion forecasts were produced using the emergency response models HYSPLIT and CANERM to provisionally identify the source of the volcanic clouds in each case. For the 8 March 2003 encounter, the volcanic cloud most likely originated from Rabaul volcano, in New Britain, Papua New Guinea, and was lofted from low altitudes to aircraft cruising levels during extensive convection in the area. For the two encounters on 23/24 November 2002, one of which caused significant but not life-threatening damage to the aircraft involved, the volcanic materials almost certainly did not come from a local source, but were advected over a great distance. The probable source was the explosive 3/5 November 2002 eruption of El Reventador, Ecuador, South America, approximately 14000 km east of the encounters. Using AIRS satellite data, we were able to track ash from this eruption along the forecast path towards the encounter locations for seven days before it became too difficult to track. This eruption cloud is probably the oldest and furthest travelled to have been known to cause damage to an aircraft. These cases highlight the gap between our remote sensing and modelling capabilities and the expectations of the aviation industry. Further work is required to better define the nature of the ash threat and the standard of warning service that we aim to provide, and to improve our capacity to provide the service.
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MAG: 1579473159 OpenAlex: W1579473159
