Deterrence, Denial and Conflict: the Guam Cluster

Kuper, Kenneth Gofigan; Bettis, Leland; Underwood, Robert A. (2024). "Deterrence, Denial and Conflict: the Guam Cluster". The Guam Daily Post. Hagåtña, Guam: Guam Daily Post.

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Abstract: Analytical column examining U.S. military strategy in the Indo-Pacific through the concept of “clusters,” with Guam as the central hub. The article argues that Guam’s role in deterrence strategy is both critical and precarious, as shifting U.S. reliance on allies introduces uncertainty while concentrating risk on the island. It highlights the transition from deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial, the limitations of allied commitments, and the increasing militarization of Guam and surrounding islands. The authors conclude that Guam is likely to serve as the primary operational base in a regional conflict, bearing disproportionate strategic risk relative to its size and political status.