Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War
Priebe, Miranda; Frederick, Bryan; Binnendijk, Anika; Evans, Alexandra T.; Mueller, Karl P. (2023). Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, The. ISBN 978-1-9774-1108-2.
- Has attachment: File:IW4JBDNK.pdf
Abstract: What happens after great power wars? The deterioration of U.S. relations with China and Russia in recent years has refocused attention on the possibility of a major conflict. But while substantial research has illuminated potential pathways for escalation, the long-term consequences of such a conflict remain poorly understood. To inform an analysis on the possible consequences of a great power war, the author examined ten cases of great power conflict since 1853. The author found that prewar predictions about conflict duration, intensity, parties to the conflict, and the post-war world have often been incorrect.
"...With substantial assistance from Japan, the Entente picked off Germany’s resource-rich Asian colonies and safeguarded British access to India. By the winter of 1915, Germany’s naval presence in the Pacific had been neutralized, and its holdings on the Chinese mainland and in Micronesia, Western Samoa, Papua New Guinea, and the Bismarck and Solomon Islands had all been seized..."
"...By aligning with the allies and defeating the German presence in the Pacific, Japan demonstrated its international clout, penetrated new markets, secured claims to the Shantung Peninsula and German Micronesia, and issued what became known as the Twenty-One Demands asserting special rights in central and northern China.."
"...As the United Kingdom teetered on the brink of collapse and the United States scrambled to mobilize for a two-theater war, Japanese forces conquered Malay and then Singapore in February 1942 in what British Prime Minister Winston Churchill described as the “largest capitulation” in British military history.371 By March, Japanese forces controlled Java, Borneo, and Rangoon and had landed on New Guinea. The Philippines surrendered on May 6 after weeks of intense fighting, allowing the Japanese to claim control of thousands of miles of the Pacific stretching from the Bay of Bengal to the Micronesian atoll of Wake Island..."
